About Turkish relations - Gulf strategy
Ketbhaala Hussein Bakir, on 22 March 2009 at: 10:37
Place of publication: Gulf Research Center / Magazine opinions about Gulf
Posted: October 2008
By: Ali Hussein Bakir
Took advantage of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) regional Turkish incisive climb, recorded in 3/9/2008 historic event was the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Turkish side, set the tone for relations, Gulf-Turkish strategy on all political, economic and cultural levels, and even security and military, during the foreign countries and the Ministry of meeting concerned in the city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.
We can sense the importance of this agreement because it is the first convention held by the Gulf Cooperation Council in this way alone with certain other state, it has never done so until the date of signing of this agreement, no doubt that this fact connotations as later will appear, especially as it comes under critical circumstances witnessed by the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East.
Although the parties have accounting that this agreement is not directed against a particular, but we note that it came after the escalation of the Iranian skirmishes-Gulf as a result of Iran's insistence on the occupation of the three Arab islands, rejecting all peaceful solution initiatives which have been launched by the Arabs in that matter.
the rise of Turkey's geo-strategic regional
On the political level, and at a time when regional powers scramble to book her place in the map geo-Astraetjh that emerged after the collapse of the eastern gate of the Arab world after the occupation of Iraq, and before the Afghan regime, "Talabani" exclusion, Turkey appears as a fundamental and major owns communication lines with all influential actors so that aspires to establish its position deals in the region based on the self weight on the one hand and the others need to communicate and find solutions and output in light of the political, military and economic crises plaguing the region as a whole on the other.
On the economic front, many of us do not know that the Turkish economy and after nearing collapse in the nineties has become in the past few years under the government of the Justice and Development Party, the largest economy Islamist, ranking the 15th place globally, noting that Turkey is a country is an oil producer but The recent burden great it especially in light of skyrocketing oil prices, as the volume of oil and imports about $ 20 billion, which is equal to the size of the tourist its revenue for 2006.
Turkish economy showed that reliance on science and work any knowledge and manufacturing is able to achieve miracles. Despite the severe crises of this economy, which was threatening to collapse, was able to get out of the ordeal and even achieve record figures in all fields based on a number of measures and structural reforms that made him superior to all economies Islamic rentier mostly, and GDP, according to official figures, 663 billion dollars or the equivalent of 887 billion dollars, as measured for purchasing power, and of the Turkish exports, which is dominated by the industrial character of its own about $ 107 billion, with an average annual per capita income of between 9 and 10 thousand dollars, with the need to take into consideration that the population of Turkey It exceeds 70 million.
political cooperation Turkish-Gulf
It is noted in this context that the chances of the bilateral political cooperation is limited for both sides, especially in light of a network of relationships possessed by Turkey and connecting it with all international actors, without exception, but it remains the most important political issue in the crystallized around two points:
1. achieve a regional balance with Iran: The position of Turkey and its size and population and military power is very similar to what is owned by Iran, which is poised to play in the political sphere an important role in achieving the geo-strategic balance with private she began to make trouble for the Arab States since the fall of Iraq, on several levels, including the insistence on the occupation of Arab lands, including the interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries, and sedition and sectarian strife, and division of the Arab communities financially, culturally and impenetrable, in addition to the threat posed by the Iranian nuclear program on the Arabian Gulf that was ecologically or safety hand or in terms of prejudice to the military balance in the region and the possibility of the outbreak of a new regional war between Iran and America or Iran and Israel and the Arab states to be her apron.
In front of these daunting challenges, it would be natural for the GCC countries to open the gate and strategic communication with Turkey, which has seen since the arrival of the Justice and Development Party to power up geo-political harmony with nature and historical legacy region and away from the sensitivities, at a time when Turkey does not impose itself by force on the region, offering at the same time a model different from the confrontational model, trimmer extortionate provided by Iran, interacting with the Arab world (whether in the Persian Gulf or the Levant) and away from what would raise mosses, if the same progress represented by sectarian or element historically superior or nationally or by imposing itself as the leader of a field.
It had previously paved the way for all this to demonstrate good faith by ending all major border problems that were stuck between them and the Arabs, especially Syria and Iraq, and then offered a regional vision and willingness openness to everyone and provide possible assistance through shuttled bi included Arab sides (Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain) and Turkey. So you can rely on Turkey, which has historically been a protector of the borders of the Islamic country and thus to re-present itself this time from the door of Islamic moderation, which protects against the evil influence of Iran could.
2. solve problems and regional crises: It can be for the GCC countries to rely on Turkey, in this context, especially since the rise regionally did not come as a result of deals or bargains or blackmail, and did not come at the expense of one, which is that they were able to exploit the American and NATO need it formerly a private during the Afghanistan and Iraq war, or later, but they did not do, unlike the Iranian player who is sure he will try to make a deal on strabismus these countries in case of securing its own interests with the United States or Israel.
In this sense, Turkey's relations with all local actors, regional and international will be very useful for the GCC countries, we have seen and continue to see reactions this role in more than one country, either through mediation carried out in the negotiations between Israel and Syria, or through the mediation already proposed on Lebanon, or those related to the Palestinian issue, or even about the Iranian nuclear crisis.
Turkish-GCC economic cooperation
In this context, it seems that the chances of enhancing economic cooperation big on more than one level:
1. The level of investment: the volume of foreign direct forms in Turkey in 2007 amounted to about $ 22 billion after rising dramatically after the receipt of the Justice and Development ruling party and that of $ 1.1 billion in 2002 to $ 10 billion in 2005, followed by a number of foreign companies participating high of 5400 2002 company of the year to 18300 in 2007, which indicates that Turkey has become a fertile ground for investment, and poised to attract the highest possible ones, and the GCC countries to benefit from this investment environment and pump their money and surplus oil revenue they earn and directing it, especially as the volume of Arab and Gulf investments Turkey is modest compared to the size of foreign investment, which on the one hand and the relative returns of oil flowing into the GCC countries and the Gulf investments abroad, on the other hand. So Turkey can be an outlet for safe investments in oil revenues.
2. the commercial level: the size of Turkey's foreign trade in 2007 amounted to about $ 280 billion or $ 110 billion in exports and $ 170 billion and imports, which means that it is a key player in global trade with its quest for a foreign trade volume has half a trillion dollars in 2023, which is a very huge numbers when compared to share cooperation Council (GCC) which is less than 2.7% of the size and amount, which means of course the need to raise the trade exchange between the two sides ratio and the removal of all obstacles that would limit the height of its size in the future.
3. on the industrial level: Turkey is the second largest producer of sheet glass in the world and the sixth largest cement producer and the sixth largest producer of ready-made garment, and form industrial exports about 89% of the total exports, while the industrial sector contributes with about 25% of GDP, which includes industries such as cement, steel and iron, Altbrookimoaat other industries including electronics, weapons, cars and other. It is known need GCC extreme to the building materials produced by Turkey of various kinds, which, especially in light of the construction boom taking place in the Gulf, which could be an important source of cooperation between the two parties, as can be for these countries to use operators construction Turks internationally renowned expertise after completing more 3 of thousands of draft global levels in more than 70 countries, and in particular that there are 22 firm pledges at the top of the list of global operators, where Turkey also occupies third place in the list standings after both the United States and China.
4. The level of tourism: Turkey occupies a position among the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, and exceeds the demand for Turkish tourism is more than demand in the global tourism level. The number of tourists coming to Turkey has witnessed during the period 1980-2005 increased at a rate of 17.5 times and the tourism income at a rate of 5.5 times. The tourism sector and plays an important role in the Turkish economy in terms of this sector reported income in 2006 was worth twenty billion dollars spent nearly 21 million tourists (5% of them Arabs), with plans to raise the number of tourists to thirty million in 2010 with the achievement of tourist income by 30 billion US dollars in 2010. There is no doubt that the agreement with the Gulf countries will make Turkey a favorite tourist gateway have gathered Asia to Europe through Istanbul.
5. agricultural level: The food self-sufficiency for Turkey among the highest in the world, and works about half the workforce in the agricultural sector, which has all the agricultural and water necessary ingredients to be able to provide food not of the bay only, but for the entire Middle East, which is a good opportunity for the GCC countries experiencing food gap year amounted to 2006 worth about $ 12.2 billion, which is still looking for places to provide their own food from him through import directly or through the agriculture and harvesting crops.
And it can be for the GCC countries to benefit from the plan announced by Turkey titled "Agricultural production center and a basket of food in the Middle East", which requires an investment of $ 12 billion over four years through which seeks to transform the Southeast Anatolia region into a center for the production and distribution of agricultural crops and food at all countries in the region, through irrigation of about two billion hectares of arable land and the development of the food industry there.
Turkey's 2007 economic indicators
GDP of 663 billion dollars
Altatj domestic product (PPP) 887 billion dollars
Exports of $ 110 billion
Imports $ 170 billion
Direct foreign investment, $ 22 billion
Inflation rate of 8.4%
Civilian labor force of 22 million people
Internet users 36 million
The number of cellular phone users 63 million
Turkish-GCC military:
It will be very useful to open the door of cooperation between the parties in the military field, as to Turkey's defense industry own to achieve self-sufficiency, away from countries that impose restrictions on military technology export control, and is also seeking to engage in the production of weapons of projects and systems joint arms by obtaining production licenses from the country of origin, which allows the transfer of high technology to them, which can be Gulf states at one stage to benefit from the Turkish experience in this emerging field.
On the nuclear front, Turkey is advanced by far in this area, which is now moving to implement the establishment of nuclear reactor projects for peaceful power purposes after it had been completed long ago all studies relating to the time and chose the city of "Sinop" on the Black Sea locations for the establishment of the first nuclear reactors from between the three nuclear reactors, it is seeking to establish. Accordingly, the GCC countries which is witnessing a rising demand for electricity can rely on the Turkish experience in this area, and the launch of peaceful nuclear projects to ensure the needs of the region of electrical energy, particularly as it has already begun to embark on the first steps required.
Turkish-Gulf bilateral strategic projects
In common agendas between the two plans, two projects of the most important spurt in regional strategic projects at all, and if the implementation of these two projects and translated practically on the ground, it is certain that bilateral relations will acquire the character of permanence at all levels so that the link organically and establishes a form of economic and political nucleus of regional character and an international level.
1. Railway linking the Persian Gulf, Turkey Project
A project that brings to mind the Hijaz Railway achieved by Sultan Abdul Hamid II as the largest regional project in that era project. The new project, Bahraini King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa has put forward in his recent visit to Turkey in August 2008 after a century Exactly on the conduct of the first train on the Hejaz Railway line, which may constitute if accomplished the main point of a basic structure developed for the exchange of trade, especially with the the high cost of fuel for transport means of transport, the traditional current, which is expensive at present, and more importantly, it will be an anchor of economic and political integration and cultural interaction at all levels between the Arabs and Turkey, especially since the project has been going through in Iraq, bringing to the Gulf or through Syria and Jordan to achieve the same goal, it also will connect the Gulf to Europe via Turkey so that it is able to pass on the Gulf citizen of his country boil Paris within hours. It seems that all the conditions are in place to complete a project like this dream and return from history to reality today in the presence of an executive foundations of the project was to develop funding frameworks needed was the Gulf Cooperation Council have been established by signing the framework agreement for the establishment of a free trade zone with Turkey in May 2005 states, being work on the follow-up next year.
2. Oil-for water
Arabian Gulf countries are rich in oil to the maximum impoverished border water resources, while Turkey is a poor oil-rich beyond border water resources. These data accompanied by import Turkey for more than 95% of its oil from abroad, estimated at $ 20 billion, while representing desalinated seawater more than 75% of the water used in the Arab Gulf states amount of up to 1.85 billion cubic meters, or about 90 % of the total production of the Arab region of desalinated water, makes the oil integration-water between them is vital not at the level of the economic benefits that the parties would accrue only, and not in terms of strengthening political relations also only, but on the level of protection and promotion of the concept of national security on both sides which falls under it Gulf water security and the security of the Turkish energy.
Can through this project that the GCC member states of the Project Planner "Author peace pipeline" Turkish benefit from the two lines are supposed to be heading one towards the Arabian Gulf region, and another toward the east coast of the Red Sea, a parallel Asir mountain range in the UK, and the project in writing provides for the GCC countries as a total of four million cubic meters of water per day offers them the Western line and a half million m3 of cities west of Saudi Arabia, and the eastern line distribution of two and a half million m 3 adjacent to the shore of the Arabian Gulf regions in the UK, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman.
In short, Turkey if it is difficult and an active figure in the region, and it would be fair to say that the agreement held by the GCC countries with Turkey is the most important step in decades, has been the best board option this time a contract agreement on this high level to pave the way for relations of long-term strategy at all levels political, economic, cultural and military.